2026 Roster Projections: Can Jac Caglianone Be the Impact Bat KC Needs? | One Royal Way
New arms, rookie breakouts, and a deep dive into the math behind the Royals' 2026 Opening Day outlook.
Spring training is officially underway in Surprise, Arizona, and the vibes are high for the 2026 Kansas City Royals. On this week’s episode, Joel Penfield breaks down the recent trade for Mitch Spence, reveals his first 26-man roster projection of the spring, and identifies the four “hinge point” players who will determine if the Royals are true contenders.
The Mitch Spence Trade: Making Chicken Salad?
The Royals recently acquired 27-year-old RHP Mitch Spence from the Athletics in exchange for AJ Causey. While Spence’s surface numbers from last year (5.10 ERA) might not jump off the page, Joel dives into the “why” behind the move:
The Sacramento Split: Spence struggled at the A’s minor-league “band box” home park (6.93 ERA) but was excellent on the road (3.64 ERA).
The “Sweeney” Effect: With a high-spin curveball and an “Adam Ottavino-style” horizontal movement profile, there is a lot for pitching coach Brian Sweeney to unlock in a pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium.
First Roster Projection: The 2026 Blueprint
Joel reveals his initial projection for the Opening Day roster in Atlanta. Key highlights include:
The Rotation: Led by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, with Noah Cameron projected to secure the fifth spot.
The Lineup: Isaac Collins is slated to lead off against righties, with Carter Jensen finding a home as the primary DH.
The Bench: A focus on versatility and speed with Tyler Tolbert and Michael Massey, while Lane Thomas serves as the designated “lefty killer.”
The “Hinge Point” Players
The difference between 82 wins and 90 wins often comes down to a few specific players swinging the pendulum. Joel identifies four:
Jac Caglianone: Can he turn the “aha” moment from the offseason into 30+ home run production?
Isaac Collins: If he can maintain a .360+ OBP, he transforms the ceiling of the entire offense.
Seth Lugo: After a late-season fade in ‘25, the Royals need the “Sai Young form” Lugo to return for his age-36 season.
Carlos Estévez: The saves were there last year, but the peripherals (walks/whiffs) were shaky. Can he regain the “dominant closer” status?