For part 2, I'd love to see an analysis of win probability throughout games. This would help see where games are more in doubt, whereas liking at whether or not a team covers large spreads is determined by garbage time scores.
Though I would push back a *bit* on the garbage time stuff. Agree thats definitely a thing, but that should even out with a 5 year sample size. Also, the color coding and ranking is relative to the rest of the NFL, who also have to deal with the same issue of garbage time.
Agree that it should even out over time, but covering/not covering isn't always a good indicator of how a game goes. Which is why I want to see win probability. I'm guessing that with the sample size you have, that win probability stats won't be all that different from spread stats. But I'm looking forward to seeing the data!
I've always felt that Reid does just enough to win the game and then holds his (play calling) cards close to his vest. I remember reading where a player verified how Reid absolutely holds plays back for the playoffs...
That’s a very reasonable position to take, and probably what I’m thinking right now. Probably also what most other people are gonna believe. Imma look into it this next week and see what I can find.
That’s really interesting. I’d love to see more specifically about the games where the Chiefs take huge first-half leads (21-3 to the Bengals last year, 27-0 to the Broncos) I can’t wait for part 2!
As much as Andy gets lit up for not keeping his foot on the accelerator, I thought he should have run the ball 3 times in a row up 27 right before Patrick threw the 1st interception. After reviewing multiple games, I think players just tend to let up some. That is also on Andy.
On one hand I understand wanting to run the ball more. But if after the Broncos scored their first TD after the INT, KC would have had a quick 3 and out because they just run the ball, I'd be more frustrated than staying aggressive. KC has the best qb in the league; don't take the ball out of his hands.
They just need to minimize the mental lapses. That last pick when they were in FG range was terrible. Go up by 9 there, and the game is basically over.
I was referring to the series before Denver scored. To me it was a chance to run the ball, kill clock and at the very worst, punt and make that anemic offense go 80-90 yards in 2 minutes. At that point I don't think they could and we get to halftime and the game is basically over. Andy is not good at end of half and end of game strategy (proven again today when playing for a 52-yard FG). I think he needs to either give up play calling and manage the game or let EB manage the end of halves.
For part 2, I'd love to see an analysis of win probability throughout games. This would help see where games are more in doubt, whereas liking at whether or not a team covers large spreads is determined by garbage time scores.
Yep. Already got this graphic queued up!
Though I would push back a *bit* on the garbage time stuff. Agree thats definitely a thing, but that should even out with a 5 year sample size. Also, the color coding and ranking is relative to the rest of the NFL, who also have to deal with the same issue of garbage time.
Agree that it should even out over time, but covering/not covering isn't always a good indicator of how a game goes. Which is why I want to see win probability. I'm guessing that with the sample size you have, that win probability stats won't be all that different from spread stats. But I'm looking forward to seeing the data!
^looking at... Not "liking at"
I've always felt that Reid does just enough to win the game and then holds his (play calling) cards close to his vest. I remember reading where a player verified how Reid absolutely holds plays back for the playoffs...
That’s a very reasonable position to take, and probably what I’m thinking right now. Probably also what most other people are gonna believe. Imma look into it this next week and see what I can find.
It's great, though, to see that stats back it up. Thanks!
That’s really interesting. I’d love to see more specifically about the games where the Chiefs take huge first-half leads (21-3 to the Bengals last year, 27-0 to the Broncos) I can’t wait for part 2!
This was really interesting. Thanks so much for digging into the data and sharing what you found!
As much as Andy gets lit up for not keeping his foot on the accelerator, I thought he should have run the ball 3 times in a row up 27 right before Patrick threw the 1st interception. After reviewing multiple games, I think players just tend to let up some. That is also on Andy.
On one hand I understand wanting to run the ball more. But if after the Broncos scored their first TD after the INT, KC would have had a quick 3 and out because they just run the ball, I'd be more frustrated than staying aggressive. KC has the best qb in the league; don't take the ball out of his hands.
They just need to minimize the mental lapses. That last pick when they were in FG range was terrible. Go up by 9 there, and the game is basically over.
I was referring to the series before Denver scored. To me it was a chance to run the ball, kill clock and at the very worst, punt and make that anemic offense go 80-90 yards in 2 minutes. At that point I don't think they could and we get to halftime and the game is basically over. Andy is not good at end of half and end of game strategy (proven again today when playing for a 52-yard FG). I think he needs to either give up play calling and manage the game or let EB manage the end of halves.