But What if they Hit?

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner.

There has been a ton of conversation about the state of the Chiefs’ wide receiver room, both inside the Chiefs Kingdom and from national analysts. After the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster this offseason, and no successful move to replace him on the roster, there are some serious questions about the top of the depth chart.

We’ve got Marquez Valdez-Scantling and the oft-injured (including right now) Kadarius Toney as the No. 1 and No. 2 WR. Not exactly a top-end that is going to scare defenses there. At No. 3, we likely have Justin Watson reprising the role of Demarcus Robinson/Byron Pringle that he filled last year. Lots of wind sprints, and very few targets.

Looking at the rest of the WR group, there are some very intriguing names. Rashee Rice is a rookie this year. He flashed some in the first preseason game, and has garnered some attention in training camp. We’ll see how a true rookie looks in Reid’s notoriously difficult offense. Ritchie James could play in the Mecole Hardman gimmick role.

I want to look at Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross, though. Both of them are entering their second year with the team, so they should have the playbook down. Justyn Ross was a UDFA last year who ended up on injured reserve before the season started. He garnered a great deal of hype last training camp, and that hype has continued this year. He exploded onto the scene at Clemson his rookie year with a thousand-yard season, playing with Trevor Lawrence, Tee Higgins, and Travis Etienne.

His sophomore year was also very good, but he, unfortunately, ended the season with fused vertebrae in his neck. That put him out his entire junior year, and called into question his continue playing career. He came back for his senior year, and played 10 games before going out again with a foot injury that popped up again in Chiefs training camp and landed him on IR. He’s been very injured the past few years, and a spinal fusion certainly makes football more difficult.

Skyy Moore didn’t have the rookie year most of us hoped he would, finishing the regular season with 250 yards and no touchdowns. I wrote about his rookie season before the draft, and found that he performed well under the average for a second-round pick. That does not bode well for the rest of his rookie contract, unfortunately. Players who were bad their first year are often just bad.

The outlook for both of these wide receivers is not great.

But what if they hit?