Chiefs at Steelers, Week 17 preview
Merry Christmas!
It’s starting to feel like the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) playing on Christmas Day is a tradition of sorts. When they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) this Wednesday, it’ll be the fifth time the Chiefs have played on Christmas — tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the most appearances on the holiday.
Key game details
Location: Acrisure Stadium (Heinz Field) in Pittsburgh, Pa.
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 25
Time: Noon CT / 1 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: Netflix, KCTV5 (local K.C. market only)
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Ian Eagle, Nate Burleson, J.J. Watt
Referee: TBD
Spread: Chiefs 2.5 to 3-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 43°, cloudy, up to 3 mph winds, chance of rain 16%
Injury reports from Monday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
As expected, Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner and left tackle D.J. Humphries will miss another game after missing Week 16. New on the injury list are defensive lineman Chris Jones and right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Jones’ status is looking bleak with such a quick turnaround from Saturday, though he could still practice Tuesday and end up questionable for the game. Meanwhile, if Taylor can’t go, Wanya Morris will jump in for him like he did in Week 16.
Over on the Steelers’ side, it’s looking like receiver George Pickens will play after missing the last few weeks.
Notable storylines for Week 17
It’s beginning to look a lot like… too many games in such a short time span
Three games in 11 days. We thought 12 days was rough when teams would play a Sunday-Sunday-Thursday schedule, but the NFL keeps tightening things up. Are the Chiefs feeling the effects? Well, they’ve had a few key guys go down with injuries, as mentioned in the injury report section above. The Steelers have a lengthy list, too, as do the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, who all have the same three-games-in-11-days schedule as the Chiefs do.
Of course, at this point in the season, injury reports are usually long. It’s a long, brutal season, and injuries are bound to happen. But then again, that’s the point, right? Why is the NFL putting teams at even more of a risk of injury during the most injury-filled portion of the season? Well, the answer is money, duh, but I think I speak for most fans when I say that we would rather see our teams play healthy than play on holidays.
Offensive line can’t handle another injury
Speaking of injuries, the Chiefs’ offensive line really can’t afford another one. Left guard Joe Thuney is playing left tackle right now while Mile Caliendo takes his guard spot. Meanwhile, Morris has been playing for Taylor at right tackle when he’s been out. With Humphries out, the Chiefs are one injury away from Kingsley Suamataia or another backup playing, and that would likely be disastrous. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has already been hit a bunch this season — the last thing the team needs is more backups playing against Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt of all people.
Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed
This is a big game for the Chiefs. They can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win, meaning they would be able to rest starters in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos. Combining that with the extra days due to playing on Wednesday, plus the bye week in the playoffs, and certain players would get well over 21 days of rest. That’d be a great Christmas present for K.C. heading into the playoffs.
The Chiefs could also clinch the top seed with one more Buffalo Bills loss this season, but that outcome seems unlikely — the Bills have the New York Jets and New England Patriots left on their schedule. Knowing that, it would be best for K.C. to just take care of business on Wednesday.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs at Steelers on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 4-0 (10x payout at Underdog)
OVERALL RECORD: 23-21
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The heat wave continued here in December, culminating in a 3-0 week (4-0 with the Travis Kelce free pick) that ended up paying 10x for Texans vs. Chiefs!
We’ve gone 8-1-0 since Week 14, so let’s see if we can make it a “white-hot” holiday!
Pat Freiermuth: 29.5 receiving yards (HIGHER)
For as strong as the Chiefs’ defense continues to look, they remain absent in one particular area: slowing down opposing tight ends.
Nobody in the NFL has allowed more receiving yards on both a per-game basis, as well as overall to the position, in 2024. It’s not just big plays either. K.C. ranks bottom 3 in both targets and receptions allowed to tight ends.
Enter Freiermuth, who entered the matchup last Saturday vs. the Ravens with a target share of just under 17% and 35 receiving yards/game. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much, with just three catches on the same number of targets for 16 yards on the road in Baltimore. Now that he’s back at home, I expect him to feast on an even better matchup.
Samaje Perine: 9.5 receiving yards (HIGHER)
Samaje Perine feels like a bit of an unsung hero for this Chiefs team this year. He always seems to come up with a clutch run or reception late in the game, despite the numbers not being all that relevant and even more of late despite dropping on the depth chart with Isiah Pacheco back in action.
Meanwhile, he’s gone higher than 9.5 receiving yards in five straight matchups, and now faces a Steelers team that’s really struggled vs. running backs in their last few matchups, and ranks middle-of-the-pack in receiving yards allowed to the position.
Also, it might surprise you to learn that Perine is third-best on the Chiefs in yards-per-reception at 11.6 this season. One catch in this game, and he’s projected to clear his number by more than two yards.
Xavier Worthy: 4.5 receptions (LOWER)
Give Worthy his flowers. Over the last two games, he’s led the Chiefs with back-to-back 11 target weeks, while coming off his two best performances of the year. He’s also had four consecutive weeks of five-plus receptions.
So why fade him this week?
The Steelers play a ton of Cover 3 defense, which limits some of Worthy’s downfield opportunities and ability to have wide pockets for Mahomes to get him the ball. He’s certainly capable of settling into zone coverage, but this likely sets up a better scenario for Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins rather than Worthy. He’s also seen more man coverage the previous few weeks, but the Steelers’ defense should be able to account for him more so than what we saw from Houston and Cleveland.
Additionally, the betting market is also in agreement after Underdog and company opened at 4.5. He had been sitting at 2.5 and 3.5 the past several weeks, so this feels like the breaking point to go the other way.
Chiefs-Steelers matchup history
The Chiefs and Steelers have met 37 times dating back to 1970. Pittsburgh sort of has Kansas City’s number over the course of their franchises’ histories — the Chiefs’ third-worst winning percentage comes against the Steelers, who own a 23-14 record over K.C. However, the Chiefs have the edge in the postseason, with a 2-1 record vs. Pittsburgh. The Chiefs also have a three-game winning streak going against them right now.
The last time the Chiefs and Steelers played…
The Chiefs put a whoopin’ on the Steelers in the wild-card round of the playoffs on January 16, 2022. K.C. went down 7-0 in the second quarter due to a fumble returned for a touchdown by Watt. After that, the Chiefs went on a scoring spree. Mahomes ended up throwing for over 400 yards and five touchdowns on the day, and the Chiefs coasted to a 42-21 victory.
One of the best Chiefs-Steelers games was…
Back in the ‘90s — the Joe Montana era. The Chiefs and Steelers played in the wild-card round on January 8, 1994, and it was a tight one at Arrowhead. Down 24-17 with less than two minutes to go in the game, it was fourth down for the Chiefs on Pittsburgh’s 7-yard line. Chiefs QB Joe Montana hit WR Tim Barnett for the seven-yard touchdown, causing Arrowhead to erupt. The game went to overtime where kicker Nick Lowery eventually made a 32-yarder for the Chiefs win, 27-24.
Chiefs-Steelers prediction, picks
The Steelers have been more of a running team this year, but the Chiefs’ defense has been exceptional against the run. This will force the game to be put in QB Russell Wilson’s hands, and he can be great, but he’s also prone to errors. He has four interceptions in four games against Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses in K.C., so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him throw one this week.
Will the Chiefs beat the Steelers?
I think the Chiefs match up decently against Pittsburgh, and they will win in order to secure the No. 1 seed. The game plan will probably be similar to their plan against the Texans — pressure the QB, put a spy on him, and hope the coverage is good for long enough for the pass rush to get home. On the other side of the ball, I expect WR Hollywood Brown to be used more often in the intermediate game. He was great in that role last week — I think Mahomes relies on him underneath much like he did with Rashee Rice earlier this season.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
It’s a small one at three points, and while the Chiefs are known to win close ones, I think they cover here. They managed to cover last week against the Texans thanks to a much better offensive effort than we’ve seen in previous weeks. I think the addition of Brown has truly been the difference maker, and will be the X-factor in this win for K.C.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 27, Steelers 22