Chiefs Kickoff Pursuit of Super Bowl With Divisional Round Matchup with Jaguars
Everything you need to know about the Chiefs big game at Arrowhead
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The Chiefs make their postseason debut this weekend as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Divisional Round in what could be the final home game at Arrowhead for the season.
The Jaguars pulled off an all-time comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers, coming back from down 27-0 to beat the March favorites in the AFC West. Here’s what you need to know about Saturday’s game.
Scheme Spotlight
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs have already faced off once this season and the Chiefs came out on top 27-17. The game didn’t go perfect for either team as the Jaguars missed two Field Goals and missed a couple deep throws. The Chiefs lost the turnover margin 3 to 0 - with two of them being fumbles, one in the red zone - as well as giving up an onside kick recovery to start the game.
Both teams have improved a ton since that game n in week 10 but it’s going to be up to the Chiefs to determine what parts of that game will translate to this rematch. The biggest take for the Chiefs’ offense has to be simply not turning the ball over and if they accomplish that, they should be absolutely fine.
The bigger matchup is the Jaguar’s offense vs the Chiefs’ defense and handling how both units have evolved over the season. In the first matchup, the Chiefs pulled the Jaguars out of their comfort zone with their ability to create pressure on Trevor Lawrenc. Lawrence is one of the least pressured QBs in the NFL but when that pressure is able to get home the impact is felt by the Jaguars offense. The Chiefs were able to utilize their blitz package to get pressure and confuse the Jaguars' passing attack throughout the game.
Stopping the Raiders Iso Run Game
Steve Spagnuolo has long had one of the best packages of blitzes in the NFL and that was on full display in this first matchup. The Chiefs blitzed the Jaguars on over 35% of their dropback attempts and were consistently able to impact the play doing so. Traditionally the Jaguars can be pretty good working against the blitz because of how quickly they get the ball out to their receivers but it’s how the Chiefs set up the pressures that is the real magic.
It’s seen perfectly on this play above because of how the Chiefs are able to manipulate the Jaguars’ protection scheme and get an unblocked defender running at the QB. By having Nick Bolton mug the A-gap it ensures the Jaguars five offensive linemen will block the Chiefs four defensive linemen + Bolton. The extra step is having Willie Gay working towards the line of scrimmage to the same side as the running back to make sure the RB is occupied.
On the opposite side of the formation, L’Jarius Sneed is able to get a free run to the QB based on being the least dangerous rusher of the options. The DL does a good job slanting into different gaps to hold the Jaguars’ OL into their original assignments so that Sneed can stay free and it puts all of the pressure on Trevor Lawrence to beat the free rusher.
That’s the final level to the Chiefs pressure package that shows how detailed it is. Lawrence identifies that Sneed is unblocked and looks for his “hot route” into the flat but the Chiefs have safety Juan Thornhill flying downhill at the snap. They are well aware where the weakness is going to be and secure protection against it. The dropping of Khalen Saunders into coverage also provides an obstacle for a shallow crossing route that would traditionally look to run away from Nick Bolton dropping into coverage.
In their game against the Chargers, the Jaguars had success when facing the blitz due to the lack of attention to detail. On this pressure, the Chargers provide no real confusion up front and make it easy for the Jaguars to match every rusher 1 to 1. Without any gap exchanges - outside of the LB looping - it became a super easy pressure to pick up.
Then on the back-end the coverage was straight forward and predictable, allowing Lawrence to feel comfortable with sitting on a single read until it became open. The Chargers had Derwin James one-on-one with Christian Kirk in the slot and due to the alignment of all of the mugging rushers, there was no opportunity for help to be added to the matchup.
With the Chargers inability to get real pressure with the blitz, it allowed Lawrence to stand tall in the pocket and wait for Kirk to break free. This is what often happens when teams try to bring pressure against the Jaguars. Sound pass protection calls and quick developing routes getting the ball out before pressure can get home.
What the Chiefs do so well - and did do well in the first game - is designing their pressures around multiple principles. They are trying to manipulate pass protection calls via alignment, create a free rusher, and then cover up the potential hot route behind the blitz. It’s what they were able to do most of the game vs the Jaguars in the first matchup and they’ll likely try to do it again.
Matchup to Watch: Steve Spagnuolo vs. Doug Pederson
While a big focus will be placed on the presumed-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes continuing his stellar season into the playoffs, the opposite side of the ball is under the most scrutiny by many Chiefs fans. Both Steve Spagnuolo and Doug Pederson are masters of gameplanning, leaning on their scheme to create an advantage over raw talent.
Chiefs fans are familiar with the stylings of Pederson. He’s an outstanding offensive mind that makes exceptional in-game adjustment – none more so than this past weekend’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. After starting the game planning to target middle linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr – with success, short of Trevor Lawrence turning the ball over – Pederson adjusted to take advantage of congested middle of the field coverages, targeting receivers with deep out routes and fades.
Pederson’s offense was good this season, posting a 0.042 EPA/play through the season and a 46.9% success rate. That was good for 9th and 5th in the NFL in those metrics. However, those numbers – and rankings – increase quite a bit in just the second halves of those games. Pederson’s offense put up 0.091 EPA/play and a 48.3% success rate, good for 3rd and 2nd in the league in the second halves of games this year. Clearly, Pederson’s offense was able to take the information they learned in the early parts of games this year and translated it to success.
Spagnuolo’s defense performed almost dead average in most metrics this season, and these numbers show that as well. The Chiefs defense posted a -0.001 EPA/play (negative is good!) through the season and held the offense to a 42.8% success rate. That was good for 15th and 11th for the season. However, the back half of the season tells a different story. Removing the first 8 games of the year and snaps from games that are out of hand (greater than a 90% win probability), the Chiefs defense posted a -0.089 EPA/play and a 39.4% success rate. That ranked third in EPA/play and first in success rate over that time period. When the game mattered in the back half of the year, the Chiefs defense was performing at the top of the heap – well exceeding Spagnuolo’s typical late season resurgences.
However, it’s the matchup in those second half snaps that could determine the game on Saturday. The Chiefs improve their EPA/play over the second half of those games to -0.102, but drop to 8th compared to the rest of the league – including the 6th ranked Jaguars. The same holds for success rate (41.1%), as it falls to 11th in second halves over the back portion of the year. With the Jaguars surging in the second half on offense this season, those numbers for Spagnuolo’s defense may be required – or may need to improve – to match what Pederson’s offense is putting out.
The Jaguars Offense Might Look Familiar
Pay close attention this week, and you might see some concepts that look a lot like the Chiefs offense we’ve seen under Andy Reid. Of course that’s expected with Reid matching up against one of his own — former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Doug Pederson.
While Pederson has absolutely paved his own path since he left Kansas City, he still leans on staples that the Chiefs have been — and still are — running.
The Reid influence is seen all throughout the offense. From the RPOs, to how they clear space for matchups, to what they lean on during crucial downs, there’s still plenty of Chiefs sprinkled into the DNA of Pederson’s offense.
The Jaguars still will run the bunch bubble RPO that the Chiefs leaned on heavily in 2017 — back when RPOs started becoming more prevalent. They’ll use it to get the ball in the hands of their tight end Evan Engram out in space with blockers.
Engram exemplifies a lot of similarities. The Chiefs try to create space for their All-Pro Tight End Travis Kelce by working routes away from the middle of the field to give him freedom to work.
While Engram isn’t to the level of player Kelce is, he has a versatile skillset for the tight end position. Pederson will set up him for success with space — letting him run his expanded route tree for the position with plenty of room to operate.
The Reid influence was seen even on the Jaguars’ first fourth down of the game.
The Jaguars elected to run a variation of Base Sticks out of empty. Three receivers work past the sticks and turn to find space. Chips by inside receivers and late leaks into the flat give the quarterback a last ditch option and help occupy the flat defender.
Keep an eye out on Sunday. If something looks familiar when the Jaguars are offense, it’s probably because the source material is on the other sideline.
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