Chiefs vs. Bills, AFC Championship Game preview
Mahomes vs. Allen, one more time.
We all knew it would come down to this, right? The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills. No. 1 seed vs. No. 2 seed. Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. It’s the modern day Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. But, eventually Manning beat Brady in the postseason. Can Allen do the same, or are we in for more Mahomes dominance?
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Sunday, Jan. 26
Time: 5:30 p.m. CT / 6:30 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: CBS/Paramount+
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Spread: Chiefs 1.5 to 2-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 32°, clear skies, up to 3 mph winds, chance of rain/snow 0%
Injury reports from Thursday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
Like last week, the Chiefs are at full strength, minus receiver Mecole Hardman who will officially miss the remainder of the postseason. The Chiefs couldn’t realistically ask for a better injury report heading into this game.
The Bills have some notable names on the defensive side of the ball that are worth monitoring. Cornerback Taron Johnson being downgraded on Thursday is a bad sign for them. Meanwhile, safety Taylor Rapp has already been listed as out for Sunday.
Notable storylines for the AFC Championship
Mahomes-Allen rivalry continues
Mahomes and Allen are 4-4 against each other dating back to 2020. However, the split doesn’t tell the whole story — Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, but Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs. If you asked either player, they’d take the playoff wins all day.
Some believe it’s a matter of time before Allen finally one-ups Mahomes in the playoffs. I’d say not so fast. Nobody is owed anything, and nobody is “due.” The Chiefs will treat this like a singular event, a stepping stone to the Super Bowl. The past weighs heavily on the shoulders of Buffalo only. Can Allen and the Bills overcome that weight? We’ll see.
Can the Chiefs’ O-line hold up?
The left tackle-left guard combination of Joe Thuney and Mike Caliendo was serviceable last week, but not great. The two allowed a combined seven pressures and didn’t seem to get much push in the running game. The Chiefs will likely continue with those two Sunday, though there’s at least a chance that D.J. Humphries plays at some point if the line can’t hold up. The O-line is definitely the Chiefs’ biggest concern and hurdle entering this game.
Playoff Kelce hits different
Anyone who doubted Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce should’ve known better. Sure, he had the lowest yards and touchdown totals of his career during the 2024 regular season, but we all figured he’d turn things on during the playoffs. And that he did, earning 117 yards and a score against the Houston Texans last week.
In 23 playoff games, Kelce averages just over 87 (ha) yards per game and .87 (ha, again) touchdowns per game. His playoff success is even greater against Buffalo, earning 289 yards and five touchdowns in three games. Will this be another Kelce game? Don’t be surprised if it is.
Can the Chiefs make the Super Bowl again?
Three Super Bowl appearances in a row. It’s been done before, but never by a team that has won the previous two. The conference championship game is the furthest any previous back-to-back champion has ever made it. Even if the Chiefs don’t end up winning this year’s Super Bowl, winning this game would be making history in itself. So, you say winning three straight Super Bowls gives the Chiefs immortality, but I say winning this one would already give it to them.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Bills on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-1
OVERALL RECORD: 29-24
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Xavier Worthy’s one rush for eight yards in the wrong direction cost us from another 3-0 week in the AFC divisional round. We’re now 14-4-0 since Week 14!
Let’s dive into our favorite plays on the board at Underdog for Bills at Chiefs.
Travis Kelce: 9 targets (LOWER)
Last week, I waxed poetic about Kelce’s magical run in the postseason, and he not only lived up to expectations, but he blew them out of the water. Kelce was projected for 52.5 receiving yards and he more than doubled it. I picked him to score an anytime touchdown on Underdog and he found the end zone for the 18th time in 23 playoff games.
So why fade him here?
Despite being the team’s most targeted pass catcher by a country mile in the victory vs. Houston, he still didn’t surpass this number (8).
I’m expecting more attention on 87 this week, as Buffalo dares K.C. to beat them with their running game that right now lacks explosive plays.
Khalil Shakir: 4.5 receptions (HIGHER)
In two postseason games so far in 2025, Shakir has been targeted 13 times. Of those 13, he’s caught 12 receptions with zero drops.
He’s been the Bills’ most consistent weapon all year, and more importantly, they love to use him in the slot where he can capitalize on plus-matchups in the middle of the field where the Chiefs’ defense has been its most vulnerable.
Most of the time, it’s almost an automatic play to take the over on tight end receptions/yards vs. K.C. This week, I’ll take Shakir who already put up strong numbers in Buffalo’s win from earlier this season.
Chiefs-Bills matchup history
Sunday will be the 57th matchup between the Chiefs and Bills, making Buffalo the Chiefs’ most frequent non-divisional opponent in franchise history. The Bills lead the all-time series 30-25-1, though K.C. leads the postseason 4-2.
The last time the Chiefs and Bills played…
The Chiefs lost to the Bills 30-21 in Week 11 on November 17, 2024. The Chiefs managed to keep it close for most of the game, but the offense wasn’t playing well and the defense was carved up by Allen, who ran for 55 yards and a score. Mahomes also threw two interceptions, leading to K.C.’s only legitimate loss of the 2024 season (not counting the Denver Broncos loss when the Chiefs’ starters rested).
One of the best Chiefs-Bills games was…
We’ve talked about the 13-second game. We already know about the most recent playoff game last January. We probably won’t mention the playoff games from the ‘90s. So let’s take a look at a deep cut. Back on November 17, 2002, the Trent Green-led Chiefs faced the Drew Bledsoe-led Bills. This was more of a running game, though, with Chiefs running back Priest Holmes rushing for 104 yards and a score, while Bills RB Travis Henry ran for 126.
Down 16-10 in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs took the lead after Green rushed for a nine-yard touchdown. The game was capped by an interception by Chiefs CB Eric Warfield.
Chiefs-Bills prediction, picks
The Bills were the only team in 2024 to drop 30+ points on the Chiefs’ defense (we’re not counting the Denver game — that was basically preseason). However, the Chiefs have some top playmakers back on defense this time around: defensive end Charles Omenihu and CB Jaylen Watson. I don’t think the Bills can score 30 on this version of K.C.’s defense, so hitting the 30-point mark could be the key for the Chiefs’ offense.
Will the Chiefs beat the Bills?
I believe the Chiefs will win and make their third-straight Super Bowl. The Baltimore Ravens marched easily on Buffalo’s defense last week, and if it wasn’t for their turnovers they probably would have dropped 30+ points. K.C. probably won’t turn the ball over like that. I see the Chiefs dominating the middle of the field with Kelce and others, winning a close battle thanks to a strong defensive effort as well.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
It’s a short one at 1.5/2 points, and I think the Chiefs will cover. Sure, this one could come down to one point, but all the previous Mahomes-Allen matchups have been decided by at least three points.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 27