Chiefs vs. Texans, divisional round preview
Playoff time.
Now we’re talkin’. After an exciting, yet grueling regular season, we’re finally at the games that matter most. The Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) take on the Houston Texans (11-7) in the divisional round of the playoffs this Saturday in a rematch from just one month ago.
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Saturday, Jan. 18
Time: 3:30 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Referee: Clay Martin
Spread: Chiefs 8 to 8.5-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 22°, clear skies, up to 12 mph winds, chance of rain/snow 0%
Injury reports from Thursday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
This is about as good as it gets for K.C. Despite being listed as questionable, cornerback Jaylen Watson is expected to make his return after fracturing his ankle back in October. A crazy turnaround for Watson who was clearly the Chiefs’ second-best corner before getting injured.
The Texans have some big names on their report, with linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and running back Joe Mixon as the standouts. It seems unlikely that Mixon misses the game, but it would certainly be a huge blow to their running game if he does.
Notable storylines for the divisional round
Chiefs get so much rest — was it too much?
After clinching the No. 1 seed on Christmas Day, the Chiefs earned a whopping 23 days of rest, with only a glorified preseason game to get out of the way vs. the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Some may argue that over three weeks rest is too much, and that the Chiefs will come out rusty.
It’s possible that happens, but c’mon: this team has been here before. Plus, coach Andy Reid noted that the team had some intense practices leading up to this game. There’s a reason why Reid has such a good record after the bye.
The return of (the other) J-Wat
Nope, not Justin Watson — Jaylen Watson. He played just seven games this season before getting hurt, and when he did play he was extremely effective. He still has the second-best coverage grade among Chiefs defensive backs this year per PFF. Expect Watson to be eased back into his role, with likely around 20-30 snaps at most.
Kareem Hunt’s first playoff game with Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs’ RB was poised to have a bitchin’ playoff run in 2018 before he was released due to his off-field issues. Now, years later, a redeemed Hunt gets a second chance at a postseason run with quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It’s a rare opportunity for a player to play long enough to redeem himself in this fashion, and it’s likely Hunt will take advantage of his opportunity.
Chiefs’ offensive line will be…?
It seems like the Chiefs will go with a left tackle-left guard combo of D.J. Humphries-Joe Thuney, given that Humphries is back to full health. However, if Humphries struggles too much, don’t be surprised to see Thuney slide back over with Mike Caliendo plugging back in at left guard. This will be something to monitor throughout the game.
How will the wideouts be used?
Now that the Chiefs aren’t beholden to limiting receiver DeAndre Hopkins in order to save a draft pick, I’m curious to see how much he’s used in this game. It seems likely that Hopkins-Xavier Worthy-Hollywood Brown will be the main trio, right? Let’s see how much success those guys have now that they’re all a full go.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Texans on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-1
OVERALL RECORD: 27-23
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Week 18 was the perfect week to fade the Chiefs, and fortunately for us, two of our three Broncos Underdog picks hit. We’re now 12-3-0 since Week 14!
Let’s dive into our three favorite plays on the board at Underdog for Texans at Chiefs on a blustery-cold afternoon at Arrowhead!
Dalton Schultz: 5.5 targets (HIGHER)
Back when I joined Tucker and Verderame on That Football Show on Thursday, Schultz’s line was hovering between 31.5 and 35.5 receiving yards. Turns out, a lot of folks were seeing a lot of the same numbers I was, causing the line to jump all the way up to 39.5.
Targeting tight ends vs. Kansas City’s defense this year has been arguably one of the most consistent options all season long. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards all season to the position, while also finishing second in receptions and seventh in targets.
Back when both teams met up in December, Schultz finished second to Nico Collins in total targets with eight, and I expect a similar type game script with Houston likely needing to throw more often late in the game. Factor in very cold temperatures and swirling winds, and checkdown city to Schultz should be in play.
Xavier Worthy: 4.5 rushing yards (HIGHER)
This has been a staple for me throughout the regular season at Underdog, and while the number is higher than the traditional 0.5 to 2.5 total rushing yards on the board, 4.5 still feels far too low.
Since Week 10, Worthy has cleared this line in every game he’s played when he’s had at least one rushing attempt, and there have been only two games, one of which was Week 18 vs. Denver that he didn’t get the ball in his hands as a rusher.
Worthy’s growing role in the offensive scheme and increased target share is incredibly exciting, helping to unlock parts of the Chiefs’ offense we’d been waiting for all year long.
Travis Kelce: 0.5 receiving touchdowns (HIGHER)
The numbers speak for themselves when it comes to Kelce’s postseason prowess in KC. He’s the all-time playoff receptions leader, and trails only Jerry Rice in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
The dude just shows up, to the point where you have to go all the way back to the Super Bowl in 2020 to find the last time he had less than 70 receiving yards in a playoff game.
If you want to go higher than Kelce’s 52.5 yards at Underdog, I can’t blame you. But I think the value lies in his touchdown opportunities instead, offering a much higher payout.
In 22 playoff games, Kelce has scored 17 touchdowns. A year ago, he found the end zone four times, and now faces a Texans squad that tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to the tight end position this year.
Kelce may not provide the jaw-dropping yardage or receptions we’ve become accustomed to in the postseason, but we know Mahomes will look his way when there’s a chance to add points on the board.
Chiefs-Texans matchup history
In just 15 games dating back to 2003, the Chiefs hold a 10-5 record over Houston, including a 2-0 postseason record. The Chiefs are on a four-game wining streak against the Texans.
The last time the Chiefs and Texans played…
Just a month ago, on December 21, 2024, the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19. It started out as a tough game for the Chiefs, who were getting shredded by Texans WR Tank Dell in the first half. However, Dell went down with a brutal knee injury on a touchdown catch in the third quarter. That injury clearly depleted Houston, which didn’t play with nearly as much energy afterward. After that, the Chiefs managed to run away with the game, never allowing another lead by Houston.
One of the best Chiefs-Texans games was…
I remember attending a surprisingly-close game between the Chiefs and Texans back on October 20, 2013, with Texans QB Case Keenum making his debut. Keenum leaned on rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins in that game, hitting him three times for 76 yards and a touchdown. Luckily, Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles had a nice game with 86 yards and a score, and the Chiefs were able to hang on 17-16.
Chiefs-Texans prediction, picks
I’ve said this a lot in the past, but I’m scared of this game because I’m not scared.
Will the Chiefs beat the Texans?
The healthy, rested Chiefs should definitely beat the tired, banged-up Texans. There’s not much excuse, barring a crazy injury or otherworldly event. The Chiefs have never been more at full strength all season than they are right now. I expect the offense to move with relative ease. With Dell and Stefon Diggs out for Houston, I expect the defense to blanket Nico Collins as much as possible while putting tons of pressure on QB C.J. Stroud. A definitive win for K.C. would do a lot to curb the “rust” assumptions.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
It’s a big line at 8/8.5, but I’m actually going to pick the Chiefs to cover in this one. With K.C.’s offense looking as good as it does and Watson returning to the defense, I foresee a complete game for the Chiefs en route to the AFC Championship.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 31, Texans 20