Collin Klein Returns: Pick Six Previews' Brett Ciancia Breaks Down K-State & Big 12 Projections
Ciancia breaks down Kansas State's transition under first-year head coach Collin Klein, evaluates quarterback Avery Johnson's ceiling, and maps out the competitive layout of the Big 12 Conference.
In this edition of 3MAW Podcast, Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews—statistically recognized as the nation’s most accurate preview publication over the last decade—says the Wildcats possess a strong foundation to navigate their transitional year smoothly. As Kansas State enters a new era under former Heisman finalist and first-time head coach Collin Klein, national expectations remain cautiously optimistic.
Ciancia’s Game Grader metrics highlight K-State’s historical strength in player development and win conversion, ranking them third nationally in both metrics over recent years. While the roster faces major turnover—replacing four offensive line starters, most of the defensive front, and its top three receivers—K-State successfully backfilled through the transfer portal with Power 4 starters like Oklahoma State edge rusher Wendall Gregory. Combined with a premier tight end duo and dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson, the team holds an overall national power ranking of No. 31.
The primary driver for K-State’s favorable outlook is its conference draw. The Big 12 features a dominant favorite in Texas Tech, followed by a wide-open middle tier. K-State avoids the conference’s projected top three teams (Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU). Consequently, Ciancia projects an 8-4 regular season finish, anticipating a 4-0 non-conference and early conference start before entering toss-up matchups in October and November.
Key Takeaways
An “A-Plus” Coaching Fit: Brett Ciancia gives Collin Klein’s hiring an A-plus mark in terms of program fit, highlighting Klein’s background under Bill Snyder, Chris Klieman, and Mike Elko, alongside his track record developing quarterbacks like Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed.
Favorable Schedule Drives 8-4 Projection: Despite losing nine starters on defense and heavily overhauling both lines of scrimmage through the portal, K-State avoids the top tier of the Big 12 (Texas Tech, Utah, BYU), setting up an eight-win baseline for Klein’s debut season.
Avery Johnson’s Big 12 Standing: Ciancia ranks K-State signal-caller Avery Johnson as the seventh-best quarterback in a deep conference, citing his elite athletic ceiling and rushing ability balanced against efficiency and turnover inconsistencies.
This recap was produced in part by AI.