Forecasting the Positions: Defensive Backs

Using Approximate Value and ESPN depth charts to project which position groups will be the best in the 2026 season.

Last week I introduced a new series here where I take a stab at forecasting how good each team’s position groups will be using Pro Football Focus’s Approximate Value (AV) metric. I pulled each team's current rosters from ESPN, matched them to each player’s AV, and calculated the expected AV the group as a whole would earn in 2026.

As a reminder, here is how I calculated the AV for each player:
Rookies: Historical AV based on draft slot.
Second Year Players: Historical AV based on earned AV in rookie year, and on draft slot.
Third Year Players: Weighted average of first two years (75% second year, 25% rookie year).
Veterans: Weighted average of the player’s average AV over the past four seasons and their average AV over the past two seasons (70% past two years, 30% past four years)

As with any methodology, there are obvious issues with this. Third-year players who were injured in their second year will be heavily discounted, since the injury year is weighted by 70%. Rashee Rice is a perfect example of this. He earned 8 AV his rookie year, and then 3 AV in just three games his second season prior to his injury. That meant his predicted third year AV was just 4.25 AV. Now, he also had a six-game suspension and only played in 8 games, so his end-of-year 6 AV is actually pretty close, though that has less to do with the methodology and more to do with circumstances.