Forecasting the Positions: Defensive Line

Using Approximate Value and ESPN depth charts to project which position groups will be the best in the 2026 season.

We are continuing our series on forecasting the positions for every team in the league using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric. Today we will wrap up the defense side of things by looking at the defensive line predictions.

As a reminder, here is how I calculated the AV for each player:
Rookies: Historical AV based on draft slot.
Second Year Players: Historical AV based on earned AV in rookie year, and on draft slot.

Third Year Players: Weighted average of first two years (75% second year, 25% rookie year)
Veterans: Weighted average of the player’s average AV over the past four seasons and their average AV over the past two seasons (70% past two years, 30% past four years)

Previous articles in this series include:
Linebackers
Defensive Backs

Let’s get right into it!

First off, please notice that I changed up this graphic a bit. As we learned last week looking at the cornerbacks, there can be a very large discrepancy between the expected value of the group as a whole versus the expected value of just the starters, and that can make things very wonky. In this version, the first bar you see inside the full bar is the expected AV for just the players that ESPN has identified as the projected starters. For the Chiefs, that would be George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah.