Forecasting the Positions: Offensive Skill Players

Using Approximate Value and ESPN depth charts to project which position groups will be the best in the 2026 season.

We are continuing our series on how good each team’s position groups are relative to the rest of the NFL. This week, we finally get to talk about the side of the game that actually matters: The Offense. Defense never gets you anywhere in the NFL (please ignore any and all evidence otherwise). Offense is how you score points; offense is how you win; offense showcases Patrick Mahomes!

As a reminder, here is how I calculated the AV for each player:
Rookies: Historical AV based on draft slot.
Second Year Players: Historical AV based on earned AV in rookie year, and on draft slot.
Third Year Players: Weighted average of first two years (75% second year, 25% rookie year)
Veterans: Weighted average of the player’s average AV over the past four seasons and their average AV over the past two seasons (70% past two years, 30% past four years)

Previous articles in this series include:
Linebackers
Defensive Backs
Defensive Line

Offensive skill positions include running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. We will be looking at all three of those in that order.

After adding in an indicator for just presumed starters (per ESPN.com depth charts) to the graphic last week, and writing an article with those graphics, I’ve realized that seeing the starters' expected approximate value (AV) is more valuable than seeing the entire position group's expected AV. Thus, I have sorted it by starter expected value rather than by overall position group expected value. This should be the last time this graphic changes, but I think it is worth the pain.