Free Agency Availability

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner

Left tackle Alaric Jackson signed an extension with the Rams this week. Ronnie Stanley and the Ravens are rumored to be close to an extension. If that is true, that’s two of the very few competent left tackles off the market before free agency even begins. Tee Higgins was franchise tagged, too.

The top of the free agent class can dry up very quickly in the weeks leading up to free agency. The class that actually reaches free agency is never as good as the class that is scheduled to reach free agency. Teams do not often let good players go. I mean, the Chiefs tagged Trey Smith, removing the top guard from free agency. It is a very pricy tag at $23.4M, and for a position that is seen as less valuable than many others.

Good players are hard to find, and teams are loathe to let them go. There are exceptions, of course. Joe Thuney was a free agent, and the Chiefs were able to bring him in. He has been an excellent addition, too. Saquan Barkley was a free agent last year. More often, players of that caliber just do not reach free agency.

Anecdotally, I believed that the more important the position, the less likely a player is to reach free agency. For example, top quarterbacks are never available. Very seldom are wide receivers or edge rushers. However, running backs are often available. I wanted to put hard numbers to this idea, and so I spent an absolutely ridiculous amount of time this past week coding up how teams acquired their top talents.