Plot Lines: Chiefs @ Giants

Two analysts, two teams, and the numbers that tell the story.

Two teams, zero wins. Someone has to win… even if neither side looks eager to do so. The winless Chiefs travel to New Jersey to take on the equally winless Giants.

The Chiefs’ star TE Travis Kelce injured teammate Xavier Worthy in the opener vs the Chargers, throwing off their game plan and leading to a loss. In Week 2, Kelce tipped a go-ahead touchdown into an interception, setting up a Philly score and another defeat.

Meanwhile, the Giants have had struggles of their own. Against Washington, QB Russell Wilson fumbled in the red zone, recovered at the 2, and after multiple failed tries, they settled for a field goal. They ended up with 6 total points in that loss. Against Dallas, they lit up the scoreboard, but a late overtime interception in field-goal range set up a 60-yard game-winner for the Cowboys.

So what happens this week? My good friend Doug Analytics (blame his mother, not me!) is a coder and analyst like me, and I thought it might be fun to have him join me for a graphic challenge, where we present our best charts for why our team will win.

This is a game card I developed last year. You can find these on my website for games after Week 2. Vegas clearly thinks the Chiefs are going to win, giving them a 73.4% pregame win probability. The Giants’ red zone woes (14.3% TD rate) and higher penalty count don’t help.

Looking at offensive advanced stats, the teams look very similar. The Chiefs rank 16th, 14th, and 27th for overall, passing, and rushing EPA. The Giants rank 15th, 13th, and 26th in those same categories. They’re within a few spots of each other across most measures, with only small gaps in late-down success, explosive play rate, and series conversion.

Defenses are also eerily similar, with the biggest difference being passing success rate, which favors the Giants. Teams do pass less against the Chiefs, who have been solid at stopping runs that aren’t Tush Pushes. The Chiefs’ biggest edge is in limiting explosive plays (10th overall).

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Doug, what are your thoughts on the matchup?

Doug:

First, thanks to Joseph for letting me bring my superior name and graphics into his article. I know I’m on enemy turf, but that’s fine since the future 0-3 Chiefs won’t have a home-field advantage on Sunday night either.

If the Giants are going to get their first win, Malik Nabers has to keep doing what he’s already been doing, and probably even more.

Nabers leads the NFL in receiving yards (238), targets (25), and total air yards (409, more than 100 clear of second place). He’s tied for 7th in catches (14) and ranks 3rd in average depth of target (16.3, minimum 10 targets). Pretty much whichever receiving stat you check, Nabers is near the top.

Part of that comes from Russell Wilson’s willingness to push the ball deep along the sideline. His trademark “moon balls” hang forever, giving receivers a chance to adjust and win downfield. Nabers has also been the most productive receiver in football against press coverage, turning 10 press targets into 105 yards and a score.

This is where the matchup gets interesting. Nabers has lined up outside on 76.5% of his routes, and the Chiefs press outside receivers more than any team in the league (52.6% of routes). Leave it to the Super Bowl XLII-winning defensive coordinator to adjust if he doesn’t like the results.

Which brings us to the graphic. Nabers is owning the outside. He leads the NFL in targets (19), receptions (12), and yards (211) on throws outside the numbers this season, more than double the next-closest player (CeeDee Lamb, 105). Since entering the league in 2024, he has piled up 875 such yards, the most of any player.

And don’t look too closely at the graphic for Chiefs receivers (you’ll have to look near the bottom), or you’ll spot another Giant at #6, Wan’Dale Robinson, who has quietly been one of the league’s most efficient receivers this year.

Joseph:

The Chiefs have allowed only 419 passing yards on the season, with just 94 to outside receivers. Corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have held up well. The slot is the bigger concern, where Robinson could find mismatches against safety Chamarri Conner or linebacker Nick Bolton.

Wilson has thrown deep more than anyone—11 attempts vs Dallas alone—and leads the league in deep yards and touchdowns. Mahomes has also aired it out more than last year, with nine attempts, though his efficiency (33%) lags. If he and Tyquan Thornton improve their connection, it could unlock the offense. Xavier Worthy, who was injured early in Week 1, may return and is a far better deep threat than Thornton.

Defensively, KC has allowed just one deep completion (28 yards), compared to five for 140 yards by the Giants, despite both teams seeing exactly eight deep pass attempts. It seems the men in blue are far more susceptible to the deep pass than the men in red and gold.

Doug:

Turning to the Giants' defense vs the Chiefs ’ offense, the pass rush has been carried by the edges, accounting for 63.2% of the team’s pressures (5th-highest in the league). Rookie Abdul Carter has been the early standout, leading all rookies with nine pressures and ranking 5th in average time to pressure at 2.27 seconds (min. seven pressures). When Carter, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux have actually been on the field together (just 27.0% of snaps), the results have been dominant: a 40% pressure rate compared to only 12% when at least one is off.

That pass rush now faces a mediocre Chiefs offensive line, aside from what should be a heavyweight battle between Creed Humphrey and Dexter Lawrence. Mahomes has been getting the ball out faster than ever (2.47 seconds), but the quick game hasn’t been efficient, with a 61.0% completion rate (5th-lowest) and a 39.0% success rate (4th-lowest) on throws under 2.5 seconds. The Giants will need to collapse the pocket quickly to disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm and keep him from extending plays.

Joseph:

Hey now, that “mediocre” offensive line includes one of the highest-paid right tackles, guards, and the league’s top-paid center. It also boasts first-round rookie Josh “HOF” Simmons at left tackle. Efficiency is hard to come by when your top receivers are out, but that could change if Worthy and Royals return this week.

Numbers and charts can point us in one direction or another, but Sunday night will tell the real story. Whether it’s Nabers burning down the sideline or Mahomes finally connecting deep, one of these winless teams is leaving with hope, while the other will go in an even bigger hole.