The Combine and the NFL Draft

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner

Free agency is basically over. The Chiefs brought back several of their own players (Nick Bolton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, Kareem Hunt, and others). They also brought in a new left tackle and running back from SF (Jaylon Moore, Elijah Mitchell), and a cornerback (Kristian Fulton) from the Chargers. There will be a few more signings in the next several weeks, but the free agency craze is over.

That means that I am free to write about the NFL Combine again! Last year, I wrote about the combine, and what tests actually matter. Every year, all the major names in college get an invite to the NFL combine, where they meet with team reps, do medical tests, and do athletic testing. The first two parts, we the public rarely learn anything about, other than X Prospect met with Y team (narrator: X Prospect also met with every other team). With the exception of something hugely significant, we will never learn about the medicals.

That leaves the athletic testing for public consumption. And consume it we do. The NFL recently moved the 40 yard dashes for receivers and cornerbacks, always some of the most watched drills, to coincide with prime time TV slots. Those 40 times, as well as other drills, have an outsized effect on how the public, and NFL teams and media, view prospects.

But how much of these tests are actually relevant for the players? Every position runs the same exact drills, but few positions actually need the same kidns of athleticism. For example, nobody would expect an offensive lineman to run as fast of a 40 yard dash as a receiver, but people absolutely would expect them to put up a much better bench press that same receiver. So do these drills matter for NFL players, and if so, what drills matter for which positions?