The Value of an Extension
The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner
As I am writing this article, the deadline to sign Trey Smith to a long-term deal is a mere eight days away. If the Chiefs and the franchise tagged Trey Smith do not come to an agreement by 3 PM Arrowhead time on Tuesday, July 15th, then Smith will play under the $23.4M franchise tag for the 2025 NFL season. That is a lot of money to be tied up in a guard, no matter how good a player he is.
Make no mistake, Trey Smith has been a very good player for the Kansas City Chiefs. He has earned a whopping +25 AV over expected in his four years with the Chiefs. Now, he was a sixth round pick, so his expectations were very low, but his total AV earned (33 AV) is second on the team among players Veach has drafted. Only Creed Humphrey has earned more for the Chiefs (43 total AV).
I have been writing about Approximate Value (AV) for a few weeks now. I have looked at expected AV for players rookie contracts based on where they were drafted, and at the value of free agents. Today, I want to compare the value of extending homegrown players versus bringing in a free agent. I will caveat this by saying that everything I present here is averages, or modeled numbers, and that any specific case can be an exception. These are generalized numbers, not absolutes.
