Week 11 game preview: Chiefs face high stakes in Denver with AFC West in limbo
Kansas City looks to cut into the Broncos' divisional lead, protect Mahomes from the NFL's best pass rush, and spark a mid-season surge coming off the bye.
It would be hyperbolic to say the Chiefs’ (5-4) Week 11 matchup against the Denver Broncos (8-2) is a must-win game for Kansas City.
What you can say is that the AFC West is hanging in the balance, and a record of 5-5 would put them in significant peril of winning their 10th straight division title. A win for the Broncos would put them 3.5 games and a tie-breaker ahead of the Chiefs with seven left to go.
Denver resembles the 2024 Kansas City squad. Five of their eight wins have been decided by one score, regardless of whether they play a low- or high-level opponent.
Some of those tight games have come against the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders – all of whom have combined seven wins on the season.
Although they are winning the AFC West and hosting the Chiefs, they are 3.5-point underdogs, likely due to the betting markets’ disbelief in their resume.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, have taken every single one of their wins by double-digits, and all of their losses have been one-score games. The 50-50 games have simply gone in the Broncos’ favor thus far, on the back of a brilliant defense.
There is no doubt there is an art to winning, however. The Chiefs simply have not closed well this year, leaving them ‘in the hunt’ for the playoffs right now.
Mahomes, in games he has started, has only lost one matchup against Denver. He has a .857 winning percentage (36-6) in his illustrious nine-year AFC West career. That is the best record against divisional opponents of any quarterback since at least 1970, and a 37th win could put them in the hunt to go a decade straight of divisional crowning.
The AFC West is stronger than it ever has been, with the Chiefs currently in third place and out of playoff position still at the onset of Week 11. Their first goal entering training camp is always to win the division, and Mahomes acknowledges that the Broncos are in first place, which should not be taken lightly. It will take some of their best football to pull within one game of their standing in a hostile environment.
“I think you understand that this game is important,” Mahomes said. “That’s the biggest thing, it’s a divisional game and they’re always important, but with them (Broncos) having the lead and us needing to go out there and win to have a chance to win the division, I think guys understand that … I think if we play our best football, we can win against anybody, so we have to go out there with that mindset of let’s play our best football this weekend.”
Head coach Andy Reid’s renowned record off a bye (22-4) is another thing Kansas City has going for them. Of course, the Broncos will also be on 10 days’ rest, but Reid’s .846 win percentage with an extra week of preparation speaks for itself.
While Denver’s record feels a little like fool’s gold, you cannot deny the fact that they do one thing better than anyone else in the league. They get after the quarterback.
The matchup lies in the trenches
The Broncos have already sacked opposing quarterbacks 46 times on the year through 10 games. That is 14 more than any other team in the NFL.
With four sacks of Mahomes on Sunday, Denver would become just the fourth team in NFL history to tally 50 by Week 11.
Their dominance has a three-headed prong. They have Nik Bonitto screaming from the outside, Zach Allen penetrating the interior, and Jonathon Cooper cleaning up on the other side.
“He’s (Nik Bonitto) someone that can really get after the quarterback,” Mahomes said. “He’s smart; he does a lot of spying on me as well. He’s a really good football player, and just like the other guys, they have a lot of sacks for a reason. They have a lot of guys – Zach Allen inside and (Jonathon) Cooper on the other side, they got guys everywhere that can make plays.”
The trio has boasted a combined 23 sacks, and it is no fluke. Just last year, Bonitto had a career high of 13.5, as did Allen with 8.5 and Cooper with 10.5.
The story for the Chiefs here is who ends up starting at left tackle? Bonitto lines up against that position the majority of the time.
The Chiefs brass has been non-committal on whether or not the rookie first-round left tackle will assume his position upon his four-game absence from the team. Reid has noted both fill-in Jaylon Moore’s competent play and that they will take a ‘we’ll just see’ approach with Simmons.
Simmons has proven to be the superior pass-blocking tackle through the first five games of his career. With his return coming against the best pass rush they will face all season, it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
It could be the most pivotal decision Reid makes, mainly because it is no sure thing that Simmons will step right in and play at the level he was accustomed to.
The Chiefs may not have to post the highest point total of their season to win this game, but if Mahomes is scrambling for his life on Sunday, it could get dicey quick.
Chris Jones, Xavier Worthy, and bye-week adjustments
If there are two Chiefs who underwhelmed in the first half of the season, you have to start with wide receiver Xavier Worthy and multi-time All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones.
Worthy’s season did not start ideally, and it could be affecting him. He went down with a shoulder injury in the first series of the season, essentially missing the first three games of the season.
When he made his debut in Week 4, he made his presence felt with eight catches, 83 yards receiving and another 38 on the ground. Through the next five games, however, he has tallied just 173 receiving yards.
“We’re not down on Xavier Worthy, we know he’s a good player and we like to get the ball in the good players’ hands the best way we can,” Reid said. “It just hasn’t rolled that way.”
From the outside looking in, Worthy is the key to unlocking the week-to-week consistency of the offense, complementing what wide receiver Rashee Rice and tight end Travis Kelce are already doing.
As far as Jones goes, it is not just the two sacks that are worrisome. He has totaled 29 pressures after averaging 92 over the past three seasons, according to PFF.
Defensive end George Karlaftis is putting forth his best season of his career. Still, he and defensive ends Charles Omenihu and Ashton Gillote are all ‘hustle’ type players who could land several more coverage sacks if Jones gets quick pressure the way he historically has.
“I think we all need to do better, I would say that,” Reid said. “Chris (Jones) is always striving to do better every day. That’s what has made him such a good player. Again, he’s the guy that they’re going to focus on, and if you’re getting a double team, that’s who’s getting doubled. He’ll get his as we go forward.”
Much like Reid’s record off the bye, he has also generally been successful throughout the second halves of seasons. The same can be said for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit. The Chiefs’ defense typically improves with each passing week in past seasons.
“We have been able to do that,” Spagnuolo said. “I hope that continues because we do need to get better. I give all the credit to the assistant coaches and players. You have to have coaches that feed it and keep working at it, which our guys do. Then, you have to have cerebral players that embrace it, want to get better. We have a lot of guys that – we always talk about chasing improvement, and that’s what our guys do. Not every team has that, I don’t think, but we’re blessed that we have guys that think that way.”
There is always a wrinkle or two, as Reid and Spagnuolo use the bye week to self-scout. One of the bigger things to watch on Sunday will not just be how guys like Worthy and Jones perform, but what the coaching staff will throw at the Broncos.
EXTRAS
Bo Nix
The Broncos have scored a combined 28 points over their past two wins against the Houston Texans and the Raiders. Quarterback Bo Nix is winning games, most importantly, but he is not inspiring a ton of confidence.
If you look at his season total, nothing jumps out to you in a bad way, aside from his 60 percent completion rate, which ranks 28th in the NFL.
He has 18 touchdowns to eight interceptions, but over the last two seasons, he has three touchdowns to three interceptions. In those, he has averaged 4.96 yards per attempt. To put that into perspective, Mahomes is averaging 7.4 on the season.
The issue for the Chiefs in this game will be getting pressure with four. Nix’s passer rating goes from 96.2 to 55.9, going from a clean pocket to under pressure, but he also has a 113.5 over his last seven games against the blitz, according to PFF. The four-man rush has not been successful for the Chiefs in the first half of the season.
It may behoove Spagnuolo to drop seven and be precise when he does call a blitz. Regardless, Jones and Karlaftis will need to make their presence felt if they want to keep this offense bottled up the way it has been.
No Dobbins or Surtain?
There’s a strong argument to be made for Bonitto, but J.K. Dobbins and Patrick Surtain II could be regarded as Denver’s offensive and defensive MVPs, and neither is likely to suit up for this game.
Sure, Surtain II does not have the stats this year, but he has nine pass breakups in eight games played, which ranks 10th in the NFL. He is also the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, which says enough.
On the other hand, Dobbins is the engine that powers the Broncos’ offense. He is the 5th leading rusher in the NFL with 772 yards, averaging five yards per carry.
The staples are well-backed up, with Riley Moss and Kris Abrams-Draine still present at the cornerback position. That said, if Rice, Worthy and Hollywood Brown all get involved, and Mahomes has time in the pocket, Reid should be able to dial some things up in Surtain II’s absence.
Denver also spent a second-round pick on running back RJ Harvey, who has just as much, if not more, explosiveness than Dobbins. While unproven, the rookie out of UCF has also been Denver’s primary pass-catching back, which could be a tough matchup for Kansas City’s linebackers.
Key injuries
Chiefs: Running back Isiah Pacheco (knee) has not practiced this week, while defensive end George Karlaftis (thumb) and Xavier Worthy (ankle) have been limited.
Broncos: Running back J.K. Dobbins (foot) and Pat Surtain II (pectoral) have not practiced this week.
Key game details
Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. CT
TV/Streaming: CBS
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz and Tony Romo
Radio: 96.5 The Fan
Head Referee: Adrian Hill
Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 | Moneyline: -215 | Over/Under: 44.5
Weather Forecast: Mainly sunny, high of 70°, winds 5-10 mph, 1% chance of rain
