Week 14 game preview: Shorthanded up front, Chiefs face season-defining test vs. Texans
Houston brings the NFL’s top defense to Arrowhead as Kansas City clings to playoff hopes.
Win, and I’m saying there is a chance. There would be a 51 percent chance, to be exact. Those are the odds for the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) to make the playoffs with a win over the Houston Texans (7-5), according to the Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator at the beginning of Week 14.
With a loss, the fat lady won’t be singing quite yet, but according to the same model, their odds would sit at 11 percent. It would be an anti-climactic end following one of the best three-year runs in NFL history.
“I’m big on reality, what’s real, why are we where we are (and) what can we do to fix that,” head coach Andy Reid said. “… Where are the problems? Then let’s work on fixing those, and if you do that, it takes your energy to get it right, and that’s what we’re striving to do.”
Kansas City is catching the Texans at an inopportune time as well. The AFC South opponent is the hottest team in their division and is striving to be just the fifth team since 1990 to make the playoffs following a 0-3 start.
With the season on the brink, the Chiefs will have to overcome their greatest weakness (maybe aside from their lack of a defensive pass rush) against the Texans’ greatest strength.
Left tackle Josh Simmons (wrist) was placed on injured reserve, and his bookend, Jawaan Taylor (triceps), and Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith (ankle) have not practiced this week.
That means there is a strong possibility Wanya Morris, Mike Caliendo and Jaylon Moore will be heading up against the best pass rushers in the league.
Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have combined for 21.5 sacks on the season, making it not an ideal time to be missing three starting offensive linemen.
“ … You have got to give respect to where it’s deserved, and those guys (Texans) have a great defensive line,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes said. “We’ll try to do the best we can, as getting the ball out of my hand, running the football, and then whenever there’s shots down the field, you have to be able to hit them.”
This is not something the Chiefs have not overcome before, as they went 2-0 against the Texans last season. Both Caliendo and Morris were key parts in at least one of those victories.
“One positive is two of the three of them played against them last year, did a good job,” Reid said. “They know what they’re up against. That’s a great defensive front.”
The Chiefs will need to execute their run game to keep the defensive line on their heels. The quick and horizontal passing game with wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy should be weaponized, as should running back Brashard Smith in the screen game.
Mahomes will look to utilize tight end Travis Kelce to move the sticks, as he always does, and he said he also needs to make good on the deep shots when they present themselves.
He will need all facets of the offense, if possible, against one of the best, if not the best, defenses in the NFL. And that includes Mahomes’ legs, something he tends to utilize in do-or-die situations.
“You’re going to have to utilize them (Mahomes’ legs), utilize everything,” Mahomes said. “Not just my legs, you have to utilize everything you have to go out there and win.”
Something has to give.
While the Chiefs have bombed on the road, going 1-5 so far, they are 5-1 at home, scoring 28 points in four of the five wins.
The Texans own the league’s top scoring defense and total defense, allowing just 16.5 points and 265.7 yards per game, and they’ve held teams to 20 or fewer in a league-best 10 outings.
Per Next Gen Stats, Texans cornerback Derek Stingley owns the league’s lowest passer rating allowed (56.0), the second-lowest completion rate (44.9), and is tied for the third-fewest receptions (22) among corners with 300-plus coverage snaps.
Houston’s defense is among the league’s best, but it is prone to occasional missed tackles, ranking in the bottom third of the NFL in that category, according to PFF. That makes Kansas City’s scheme especially important this week, as creative spacing and route design could help get receivers into open grass.
It is going to take more than Rice, Worthy, and company being man-beaters to keep the season alive. It is going to take a creative scheme and a little bit of Mahomes’ Magic with playoff hopes on the line.
With the Chiefs’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance, Mahomes said the locker room remains determined to respond.
“I think that’s one thing that makes us great, is that no one’s hanging their head. Everybody’s ready to go out there and try and prove ourselves this next week. This is another great opportunity. It’s a great opportunity at Arrowhead to showcase who we think we can be the rest of this season, but it’s going to start with Sunday.”
The Chiefs may only need to string together two to three touchdown drives in this one, due to the Texans’ offense taking a step back this year.
The middling offense is 21st in points per game at 21.9. Quarterback C.J. Stroud, after a promising first couple of years, is averaging just under 220 yards passing per game and has 11 touchdowns to six interceptions.
When the Texans have the ball, the key for the Kansas City defense will be to get them off the field on third downs. It is something that Houston is not great at converting, ranking 27th in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would like to keep it that way.
The 2025 Chiefs do not have an excellent track record at stopping third-down conversions, however. They rank 25th in that category, allowing the Cowboys to go 9-of-16 on Thanksgiving.
”We have to find a way to win four of those out of the nine that we lost, and that would change a lot of things,” Spagnuolo said.
Just the game before, though, Kansas City forced four straight three-and-outs against the Indianapolis Colts’ high-powered offense. Getting the job done on money downs will give the Chiefs offense as many cracks at scoring as possible against a vaunted Texans defense.
It is no secret that Stroud plays behind a mediocre offensive line, which gives defensive tackle Chris Jones an opportunity to turn back the clock and end drives.
The Chiefs need All-Pro Jones. Stroud is among the league’s worst when under pressure in 2025, so it is vital to get home with four, but he is also merely average when blitzed, so expect Spagnuolo to be in his bag.
“We have to win more as a unit because if they’re able to stay in the pocket, then that affects the back end of our defense,” Jones said. “So, we as a unit have to make sure we execute on all our blitzes, all our one-on-ones.”
The Texans’ rushing attack is not overly impressive in production or with the names on the depth chart, so the Chiefs’ defense should be able to somewhat sell out on Stroud’s passing attack, as well as pay extra attention to wide receiver Nico Collins.
With the way Kansas City’s defense has slowed down opponents, outside of the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Dallas Cowboys, the Chiefs should be able to take care of business.
That is, of course, as long as they do not have self-inflicted wounds, such as offensive penalties and costly turnovers, as they have against the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, and the Cowboys.
Overall, the Chiefs have been solid at limiting turnovers, but penalties have been drive killers in three games where the offense played well.
“We need to take care of some of the little things, the penalty things,” Reid said. “They take you out of drives, so you’re not scrambling as you go there. You have got to clean that up.”
The margin of error is slim-to-none and clean, but aggressive football is the only way Kansas City can make 2025 a ‘December to remember,’ as cornerback Trent McDuffie put it.
”Coach (Reid) is always bringing out this saying, ‘December to remember.’ You need to play your best football in December,” McDuffie said. “Just the attitude around here is understanding where we’re at. We have a shot; we’re still in the hunt.”
Key injuries
Chiefs: Right guard Trey Smith (ankle), safety Chris Roland-Wallace (back) and right tackle Jawaan Taylor (triceps) have not practiced this week. Left tackle Josh Simmons (wrist) was placed on IR.
Texans: Defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. (chest/shoulder) and Denico Autry (knee) have been limited, as has offensive tackle Trent Brown (hand) and running back Wood Marks (ankle). Defensive tackle Tim Settle Jr. (foot) was placed on IR.
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Date: Sunday, Dec. 7
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. CT
TV/Streaming: NBC
Broadcasters: Cris Collinsworth and Mike Trico
Radio: 96.5 The Fan
Head Referee: Clay Martin
Betting Line: Chiefs -3.5 | Moneyline: -180 | Over/Under: 41.5
Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy, low of 20°, winds 5-10 mph, 4% chance of precipitation