Week 9 game preview: Mahomes, Allen meet again as rivalry takes center stage in Buffalo
Two electric offenses collide in what could be the last matchup in Highmark Stadium. The Chiefs and Bills renew their rivalry, aiming to strengthen their standing in the AFC.
Sunday afternoon marks part 10 of a series that will one day be regarded in the same way we currently view the Brady-Manning rivalry.
The Chiefs lead the head-to-head matchup 5-4 when including the playoffs. As you all know, that just barely tells the story of these two in this era of the AFC.
The Buffalo Bills have won four straight in the regular season, while the Chiefs have answered the call in four straight postseason matchups. Even quarterback Patrick Mahomes is unsure what to make of it.
“I don’t know, honestly. All the games come down to like one (score), other than like two games that we’ve played against each other,” Mahomes said. “Every single game comes down to like one play here or there that someone has to make, if that’s offense, defense, whatever it is. I think it comes down to players making plays in big moments, and that’s worked out for us in the playoffs and worked out for them in other times. To me, it’s just about the next time.”
Running back Kareem Hunt, who could start this week, said he knows the Chiefs are walking into a playoff-like atmosphere, and he is right. The eye test will tell you that this is what each matchup between the two feels like.
Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will be on the call, further cementing that. The number one CBS crew is offering up play-by-play to viewers for the last time at Highmark Stadium, barring a rematch in Orchard Park in January.
“They (Bills fans) don’t like us,” Mahomes said. “They do not like the Chiefs. It is a cool environment. I love playing in historic stadiums, and that stadium has had so many great players play in it. Who knows, it might be the last time that we get the opportunity to play there.
It will be a great challenge for us, and they’re loud, and that’s what you want, you want to go in and be in a hostile environment. That’s what football, when you watch on TV as a kid growing up, is the environment you want to play in. Obviously, they’re not rooting for us, but you get to bond together as a team and get to go into a historic stadium and play in a great environment.”
The Chiefs’ defense has allowed just 14 points over the last 10 quarters, but there could be fireworks. There typically is in a Mahomes-Allen dual, and the Chiefs have struggled against talented quarterbacks who can use their legs and get the ball out quickly.
Both offenses are clicking for the first time in some years. Both are top five in yards per game, while the Bills are averaging the fourth-most points per game, with the Chiefs sitting seventh in that category. Over the past five weeks, however, Kansas City has been number one in that category.
This game has major playoff implications, too, as it always does. A Chiefs win would give them the ability to jump back into the mix atop the AFC after a 2-3 start, and it would potentially put the Bills 1.5 games behind New England in the AFC East, with the Patriots holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
“This is one of those matchups where this game could be a huge deciding factor of seeding for playoffs, and it’s always exciting, competitive game, especially when you play a guy like Josh Allen, who can do so many things well,” defensive tackle Chris Jones said. “He’s big, he’s physical, but also fast, also has a big arm that can make any throw, and he makes the guys around him better. So, we know it’s going to be a competitive matchup, and we always look forward to the challenge.”
A month ago, Kansas City would not have been the favorites in this game on the road, but they are now (-2.5) after some things have changed.
Both of the AFC powerhouses have had odd starts to the season. Buffalo is 5-2, despite playing the 31st-easiest schedule, according to PFF, with losses to the Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. After a slow start, the Chiefs have won five of six and all five have been by double digits – a far cry from their undefeated record at this time last year, with nearly all of those games decided by one score.
This regular-season matchup is the first one in several years where the Chiefs are coming in playing better football. Kansas City has Rashee Rice back in the fold, who did not play in either of last year’s matchups in this rivalry, and the offense has scored at least 28 points in five straight games.
And this is all while Kansas City’s defense is second in the NFL in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed per game.
Heading into Week 8, the Bills felt vulnerable, coming off two straight losses and traveling to Carolina to face the Panthers, who had won three games in a row. Buffalo took advantage of an Andy Dalton-led offense, though, and took care of business, 40-9.
It is unclear if the Bills figured something out coming off their bye, but all eyes will be tuned in Sunday afternoon to find out.
“We know they’re a good football team,” head coach Andy Reid said. “There’s a lot of history between the two teams over the last few years, and it’s been a good battle every time that we have an opportunity to play each other.”
Mahomes vs. Allen
This matchup is truly a tale of two different seasons – the regular season and the postseason.
The head-to-head stats bear it out, too.
Mahomes has thrown 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions in the regular season and has lost four straight games. Allen’s ratio is 10-to-3 in that category, and the Chiefs’ defensive front has only brought him down just four times.
Mahomes spoke about the challenges of facing Buffalo over the years this week.
“They do a good job of being game plan specific every single year,” Mahomes said. “It’s just a lot of great football players that we’re going up against, and we know it’s going to take our best football. That’s the biggest thing I’ve learned from this rivalry is that it’s going to be one play here or there that’s going to change the outcome, and you have to go out there and make it.”
The sacks are a key statistic in 2025 because the Bills have taken down Mahomes nine times in those four games. This year, the offensive line is coming together for Mahomes, allowing him to survey the pocket and get to his second and third reads. Buffalo’s defensive line is also banged up.
The playoffs are a different story, and the scoreboard says that. Allen has still been spectacular, with a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but Mahomes’ is 9-to-0. In those games, Allen has been sacked eight times, while Mahomes has totaled just five.
“That’s important for the offensive line to gain that trust,” Reid said. “I just kind of flip that one over, and the o-line takes a lot of pride in that, and they want to be able to keep him (Patrick Mahomes) in there (the pocket) as long as they possibly can. We’ve played this string of defensive lines that are really good players. For Pat to have that trust is huge.”
The ability to protect the quarterback has a strong correlation to who wins the game.
Both quarterbacks have been sacked 14 times this season, which is tied for 11th, and it is no shocker that both offenses have been prolific for large stretches of the season.
“Their offense is special and obviously the quarterback (Allen) is one of the best in the league at what he does, and he has a great surrounding crew starting up front and moving on back,” Reid said.”
James Cook
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has done a nice job slowing down some of the game’s best backs this season. The front has contained Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne Jr., the Lions’ two-headed monster, and Ashton Jeanty.
“It’s about having trust. All 11 guys,” defensive end Mike Danna said. “ … It’s not an easy job containing some of these rush attacks, but as long as you know you have 11 guys who are playing with their hearts on fire, legs on fire, then you have 11 hats to the ball, I’m sure you can contain it as best as you can.”
They are definitely going to need all 11 guys this week because this week is a very tall task.
James Cook comes into the game only behind Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor for the most yards rushing in the NFL.
He has 753 yards, seven touchdowns and averages six yards per carry as the Bills’ most dangerous weapon. Just last week, he tallied 216 yards against the Panthers and has runs of 65 and 44 yards this season, so he is a threat to score from anywhere.
He is also a threat in the passing game. Allen always seems to find him when he needs him, and while he only has 12 catches this far into the season, he has caught over 30 balls in the previous two seasons, with a career-high of 44 in 2023.
“This is a real dynamic runner,” Spagnuolo said. “We’ve faced a bunch of them already this season. This guy might be the top of the crew. I’m always impressed with running backs that can make the jump cut behind the line of scrimmage and go, and he can do that. I showed three of them this morning. He can capture that edge, he can convince an edge defender that he is going inside, and then boom, get outside on them, and that’s where he is really dangerous, because he’s got really good speed. He can do it all.”
EXTRAS
Will Elijah Mitchell be activated?
Through eight weeks, the Chiefs have liked running back Elijah Mitchell enough to keep him on the 53-man roster, but not enough to activate him.
“First of all, he (Mitchell) had a severe injury at one point, and a lot of guys wouldn’t even come back from this thing, and he battled back,” Reid said. “You could see him just get better every week during camp, and then progressing through to now. He takes a lot of reps with the scout team group. I would tell you that we all have confidence in his playability for sure.”
He has not dressed for a single game this year, but he might be stepping right into the Chiefs’ biggest rivalry matchup.
Running back Isiah Pacheco has not yet practiced this week due to a knee injury, and with the bye week following the game, they will likely elect to give him the extra rest.
Mitchell had a spectacular rookie season in 2021, where he rushed for 963 yards in just 11 games on 4.7 yards per carry. Since then, his career has been riddled with injuries, however.
You never know, though. If the offensive line continues to play well, he could be a guy who has more burst than Hunt and better vision than Pacheco. With Kareem excelling in short-yardage situations, the team may limit his workload as the likely starter. That could open the door for Mitchell, depending on how much they trust rookie Brashard Smith.
Turnovers and penalties
Much like the sacks, turnovers have played a large part in determining the winner and loser of this matchup over the last nine meetings.
Both teams have limited their giveaways, but have not taken it away much either. The Chiefs are ahead in both categories, however.
The Chiefs have coughed it up just four times, while taking it away nine times. The Bills have six giveaways and eight takeaways.
Kansas City had a season-high in giveaways with two against the Washington Commanders in Week 8. They still walked away with a blowout victory, but Reid is not taking that particular part of the performance lightly.
“Turnovers are terrible,” Reid said. “When you’re talking about winning and losing football games, it is hard to overcome those. Every week, I give the guys the stats of the other team and win/loss – whether they won the turnover battle or lost the turnover battle. If you lose a turnover battle the majority of the time, you’re losing the football game, and that’s just how it goes. You’ve got to take care of the football.”
Another thing to keep in mind is that Carl Cheffers is the head referee in this one. His crew leads the NFL in flags thrown per game with 17.29.
The game in Jacksonville earlier this year was derailed entirely after a montage of penalties and a very costly turnover. The Chiefs outplayed the Jaguars thoroughly in every other statistical category, so this will be a key trend to watch on Sunday against the Bills.
3 touchdown passes
In what could be a third MVP campaign, Mahomes has the opportunity to do something on Sunday that he has only done twice in his career – once in 2018 and once in 2021.
Three touchdown passes would mark the fourth-straight game he would have accomplished that.
That same stateline would also have him surpass Dan Marino for the most all-time before the end of any quarterback’s ninth season. Mahomes would have a total of 47 such games.
Key injuries
Chiefs: Left tackle Josh Simmons (personal) and running back Isiah Pacheco (knee) have not practiced this week, while right guard Trey Smith (back) has been limited.
Bills: Safety Taylor Rapp (knee) and Ed Oliver (bicep) were placed on injured reserve this week. Defensive tackle DaQuon Jones (calf) has not practiced this week, while wide receiver Joshua Palmer (knee/ankle) was limited following a “did not practice.”
Key game details
Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. CT
TV/Streaming: CBS
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz and Tony Romo
Radio: 96.5 The Fan
Head Referee: Carl Cheffers
Betting Line: Chiefs -2.5 | Moneyline: -135 | Over/Under: 52.5
Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 54°, winds light and variable, 8% chance of rain
