What to Expect from a Rookie Class
What are reasonable expectations for an incoming rookie class, and how many can become starters by the end of the season?
Every year, each team gets a whole, shiny, new class of incoming rookies. Fans go wild for the draft and pile on incredible expectations. Or pronouncements of doom. It depends on the fan and the team. But what can we as fans reasonably expect from an incoming rookie class? That’s the question I wanted to answer in today’s article. The thing is, this question is actually a massive topic that is very easy to turn into a slippery slope.
As a simple example, in the 2022 draft, both Trent McDuffie and Jaylin Watson were hits. I don’t think anyone would argue with that. But what level of hit were they? McDuffie was obviously the better player, but he was also a first-round pick that the Chiefs traded up for. Watson was a 7th round pick. The expectations are wildly different. McDuffie was a big hit, for sure, but Watson is a much more significant return on investment.
So for today, I am going to limit this analysis to only what I am dubbing “significant contributors/starters”, and shortening that to “starters” for ease of communication.
I am going to be defining “starter” in a way that will feel a bit less intuitive than normal. Rookies do not often start every game in their rookie season. Some do, of course. But many are brought along much more slowly, and it isn’t until midway through the season that we learn their true role on the team.