Where Should the Chiefs Draft an Offensive Lineman?

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner.

The question of where to draft a player/position in the NFL draft comes up constantly in discussions this time of year. Honestly, if you’re as much of a football degenerate as I am, it comes up year-round. Today I wanted to take a look at Pro Football Reference’s stat Approximate Value (AV), and see what it has to say on the subject.

I wanted to take Approximate Value and see how it shows the talent drop-off for each position. Obviously, the top of the first round is going to be the highest value, but how steep is the drop-off slope after that? What positions are easier to draft in the later rounds? How do they compare to other positions?

To answer these questions, I calculated the total AV earned in a player's first four years for every player drafted between 1999 and 2019 (everyone who has completed their rookie contract).

That gives us a good idea of just how valuable a player was during that time. After that, teams have to pay market value, so you’re no longer getting the added value that a rookie contract provides.

I’ll start with the offensive line since both our tackles are free agents. This graphic has a dot for every single offensive line player drafted between 1999 and 2019. Players drafted after 2019 have not yet completed their rookie contracts, so they still have the opportunity to add to their rookie contract AV.