Which 3 positions are riskiest to predict at Chiefs cutdowns?
Looking at Andy Reid's historical roster numbers and the current roster ahead of 53-man cutdowns.
The Kansas City Chiefs front office faces some major roster construction decisions in the next 24 hours. There are players on the edge of the roster wondering if they’ve done enough in practices and preseason to warrant a spot on the initial 53-man roster. We as fans have similar questions about some of our favorite “bottom of the roster” players and their inclusion.
With that said, we do have some insight into Andy Reid and Brett Veach’s process, simply by looking at historical data of the players they’ve kept since Reid arrived in 2013. Keeping that in mind, today will look at historical roster trends under Reid, expectations based on the current roster, and the positions most difficult to predict in this year’s crop.
Offense
On offense, there’s consistency at the expected places. Andy Reid has had a stable quarterback room for as long as he’s been in Kansas City. Reid had an established starter, a quality backup, and kept a younger “developmental” quarterback through his early years with the Chiefs. After Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter, Reid has been a little more comfortable with a singular veteran backup, freeing up a roster spot elsewhere.
Wide Receiver has been extremely consistent, despite the position undergoing several different “refreshes” in Reid’s time. If there are young players that this offense could use — and they can play special teams — it’s almost a lock for 6 on the Chiefs roster. Tight end is a lot more consistent than it seems. Demetrius Harris was suspended for a singular game to start the 2018 season, which is the lone spot that has not had 3 or 4 tight ends on the roster. It expected to be another “4” year this year, even if Blake Bell immediately goes on IR to knock it back to 3 tight ends.
That leaves two more-volatile positions in Andy Reid’s roster building: running back and offensive line. Reid has skated by with 8 offensive linemen on the initial 53-man roster multiple times, but was largely comfortable with 9 until after the debacle that was the 2020 season. Last year, he kept 10 offensive linemen on the active roster until early November, when he traded Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to the New York Jets. Reid clearly wanted to make sure that if his offensive line underwent a battle of attrition again, he would have better depth to try to cover it.
Running back is the other position that Reid has gone with the hot hands when it came to the initial 53-man roster. If the team feels comfortable with 3 running backs — as it did in 2017 after Spencer Ware was injured in the preseason and rookie Kareem Hunt took the league by storm — Reid will trim the roster down at this spot. He’ll always carry a fullback, but he’s comfortable running as lean or as fat in this room as he deems necessary from year to year.
Defense
Where the offense had some turmoil, the defense has largely been set. Outside of some scheme changes — switching from Bob Sutton’s 3-4 defense to Steve Spagnuolo’s 4-3 defense in 2019 — the front seven has more or less been locked in place. Between interior defensive line, EDGE rushers, and off-ball linebackers, the Chiefs have kept either 15 or 16 players combined in every single year of Andy Reid’s tenure in Kansas City.
Even when shifting to the secondary, the Chiefs have been fairly consistent. Every year, Reid has rostered 9 or 10 defensive backs. There’s a clear balance between the safety and cornerback position. Where one may be a little light, Reid will pick it up with the other. It makes sense with the hybrid nature of coverages from year to year in the NFL, and I would expect 10 defensive backs on the roster again this year.
The only element that gives me pause is how Spagnuolo has altered his cornerback room in Kansas City. After starting light in 2019, Spagnuolo has slowly crept up the number of cornerbacks on the roster year over year. Even when Bashaud Breeland was out for the first four games of the 2020 season, Spagnuolo opted to keep Antonio Hamilton and Bopete Keyes on the active roster in that room. 2021 saw Mike Hughes, Deandre Baker, and Chris Lammons make the initial 53-man roster as well.
Tough Predictions
Running Back - It seemed early in the preseason as if this would be another year of Reid keeping just four running backs, as Isiah Pacheco had emerged early on as a potential three-down backup. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon all-but locked in with the first team offense, Ronald Jones looked to be on the outside looking in. However, a stellar final preseason game out of Jones featuring more downhill, power runs on early downs may have piqued the interest of the Chiefs coaching staff. If the Chiefs can’t fine a trade partner — and want to actually play a bit more power football — Jones may be a keeper and could result in some numbers-reductions at other positions.
Offensive Line - A year after Reid kept 10 players along the offensive line, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a major reduction in numbers at this position. The team doesn’t have the same quality depth that it did in 2021, and they don’t have an arsenal of young player that they’re grooming to take over. After the five starters, Nick Allegretti and Geron Christian appear to be the only true locks at the position. Rookie Darian Kinnard looks to still be adjusting to the NFL game speed, Prince Tega Wanogho struggles to stay healthy, and Austin Reiter looks fine — but could be cut as a vested veteran without worrying about him going through waivers. Reid will certainly keep at least eight on the initial 53-man roster, but that might be it until a subsequent move for Blake Bell clears another roster spot.
Cornerback - For the first time under Brett Veach, the Chiefs made a significant investment in the cornerback position — at least in terms of numbers. In addition to L’Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton, the Chiefs are expected to keep three rookie cornerbacks on the initial 53-man roster. That’s an impressive haul of year-one players. However, it’s almost assured that Chris Lammons will be a lock special teamer, bringing the total to 6 in the room. In most years, that would appear to be a wrap on the position, but the Chiefs have multiple others that could contend for a spot. Dicaprio Bootle has not had the best preseason, but has consistently been the team’s backup nickel cornerback. Rookie Nazeeh Johnson looks like he needs more seasoning, but the athleticism at the position is tantalizing — and may mean he doesn’t clear waivers. While it’s likely that this six-man room is locked in heading into Tuesday’s cutdowns, there’s just enough brewing behind the position to wonder if Spagnuolo tries to sneak another body on the roster.
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Well done. Concise. No wasted words. Thank you!
An interesting deep dive would be looking at waiver claims on cutdown day and see if there is any common thread among them. May be able to get a better idea on if a player will make it through waivers to the practice squad.